The Crisis of the German Church by the Numbers

A Catastrophic Post-Covid Assessment

The statistics for the year 2020 had been catastrophic, but according to Msgr. Georg Bätzing, president of the German Episcopal Conference, they reflected the strong impact of the pandemic on the life of the communities: a clear deficit in marriages, baptisms, first communions, and confirmations.

The figures for 2021 show some catching up: twice as many marriages and confirmations, and 50% more baptisms. But if we compare with the years before the pandemic, the account is not good. The average for the years 2020 and 2021 is much lower than the figures for 2019.

It should be remembered that because of the religious tax, in Germany the faithful are officially registered with the State. Indeed, part of the income tax of each Catholic is donated to the Church. Unsubscribing is considered as “leaving the Church.”

The year 2021 recorded 359,338 Church departures, 138,000 more than the previous year. Ten years ago, a figure of 138,000 leaving the Church would have been considered worrying; by 2010, the year the extent of the abuse was revealed, 181,000 people had left the Church. If we add the deaths, that makes a total of almost 550,000 fewer Catholics than the previous year.

The picture resembles previous years. The conclusions drawn from the 2019 figures can be applied identically to the current year. The dioceses whose bishops are particularly exposed in the debates on reforms, whether conservative or progressive, are so close to each other in the statistics that no conclusion emerges.

Conservative pastors don't hold their flock particularly well, nor do progressive bishops hold people in their open arms. Moreover, the Protestant statistics are parallel in trends. It is the institution that no longer matters: regardless of internal differentiations and debates.

Bishop Bätzing reacted by declaring that “the renewal that we bring with the Synodal Path has clearly not yet arrived here, in contact with believers.” The reform he proposes resembles a retro-fit modernization, which will always appear insufficient. Even where decisions are beginning to be implemented, discontent persists.

Investigations and studies are continuing in the various dioceses, each time leading to the same accusations, and the same general questioning. The Synodal Path does not help in any way, quite the contrary. It gives the impression that the reform has been discussed for 50 years, without result. The optimism of the main protagonists of the synod, clergy as well as lay people, is not shared.

Record numbers, free fall, meltdown, implosion: the superlatives used each year to describe new figures are wearing out. The metaphor is not necessary; the numbers are enough. In 2018, the number of exits was the second highest so far. In 2019, the highest. In 2020, again the second highest. In 2021, the highest again – waiting for the sequel.

Obviously, the Synodal Path is not a panacea, and it will end up finishing off a moribund Church.