The Election of Leo XIV and the End of the Conclave

A brief look at recent history shows that the notions of a "long conclave" or a "short conclave" are highly relative. Let the reader be the judge. In 1846, the election of Pius IX happened in three days; in 1878, that of Leo XIII also took three days; in 1903, the conclave that elected St. Pius X lasted five days; in 1914, the one that elected Benedict XV lasted four days; in 1922, the one that elected Pius XI lasted five days and there were seven ballots.

The conclave that elected Pius XII in 1939 was one of the shortest: it lasted two days, March 1st and 2nd, with three ballots. John XXIII was elected in 1958, during a four-day conclave with eleven ballots. In 1963, the conclave lasted three days and elected Paul VI after six ballots. In 1978, the conclave that elected John Paul I was the first in which cardinals over the age of 80 did not participate; it lasted two days, from August 25th to 26th, with four ballots.

During the second conclave in 1978, from October 14th to 16th (a three-day conclave), the 111 electors elected John Paul II after eight ballots. In 2005, Benedict XVI was elected Pope in the fourth round of a two-day conclave that included the largest number of cardinal electors in history: 115. It was similar to the 2013 election that elected Francis after two days and six ballots, including one tie, from March 12 to 13.

Leo XIV appears to have been elected in the fifth round of voting. While details are lacking regarding the election of the first Pope from the United States, observers were surprised by the tweet from Andrea Tornielli, editorial director of the Dicastery for Communication, announcing the white smoke at noon, against all evidence. Was this a simple blunder? Ot was it anticipation of an already scheduled election?

Perhaps one day history will tell. 

The 2013 conclave, on the other hand, is perhaps one of the best known: it must be said that Pope Francis—and the other cardinals—did not hesitate to reveal certain secrets to the press. These were all more or less organized "leaks," despite papal secrecy. They allowed journalist Gerard O'Connell to write a book on the subject: The Election of Pope Francis.

This book tells us that Cardinal Bergoglio's election was reportedly achieved in the sixth round—including a tie. It was a relatively rapid pace compared to other conclaves. The voting results show a significant shift in voter preferences:

Date, time             Round   Bergoglio    Scola   Ouellet   O’Malley    Scherer  Others

March 12 evening       1          26               30             22             10               4          23

March 13 morning      2          45               38             24              -                 -           8

March 13 morning      3          56               41             15              -                 -           3

March 13 evening       4          67               32             13              -                 -           3

March 13 evening       5          85               20               8              -                -           2

To be elected, the candidate needed to obtain two-thirds of the votes, or 77 out of 115. Jorge Mario Bergoglio went from 26 votes in the first round to 85 in the fifth. Considered an outsider, he was not among the most-cited papabili, like Christoph Schönborn, Odilo Scherer, Luis Antonio Tagle, Peter Turkson, Marc Ouellet, Péter Erdő, and Angelo Scola. The favorites of the "media conclave" are therefore not those of the real conclave.

An article in El País from May 2025 suggests the same thing, with different results. The Spanish newspaper suggests that Cardinal Bergoglio started with around 12 votes, compared to 25 for Cardinal Scola. But the Argentinian gained ground, thanks to the complex dynamics that Cardinal Daneels elucidated by evoking the agreement of the prelates of the Progressive Group of St. Gallen to have one of their own elected.

It remains to be hoped that the pontificate of Pope Leo XIV can repair a Church that more than ever needs the compass of faith to guide the faithful in a world that is losing its bearings as it moves away from God.