The Nuanced Growth of Catholicism

The arrival of spring in 2025 coincides with the publication of the Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiæ, which provides a summary of the main trends concerning the evolution of the Catholic Church worldwide, based on data collected throughout 2023 and carefully analyzed by the Central Bureau of Church Statistics during 2024.

According to these data, the world Catholic population stands at 1.4 billion (+1.1% compared to 2022, or approximately 15 million additional faithful). This figure should be compared with the parallel increase in the world population (+0.9%). This real, albeit modest, increase shows that Catholicism retains a significant place in global demographics: it represents approximately 17.7% of a total population estimated at 8 billion.

Africa is the main driver of this growth. According to Vatican News, the number of Catholics there increased by 3% in one year (from 265 million to approximately 273 million), thanks to the high birth rate in countries such as Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Uganda, where the Church plays a central role in social life. Catholic News Agency adds that this expansion is supported by missionary dynamism and the increase in the number of African priests and seminarians, which is a sign of the vitality of Catholicism.

Asia also contributes to this growth, but to a lesser extent. With a 1.5% increase, the number of Asian Catholics now stands at 150 million. In the Philippines (a historic bastion of Catholicism in Asia), India, and Vietnam, Catholic communities are expanding despite often hostile environments. However, this growth remains limited by factors such as religious persecution, as in China, competition from other religions, and secularism.

In Europe, the number of faithful is stagnating or even declining slightly. Vatican News notes that the 285 million European Catholics now represent only 20% of the world total, compared to 50% a century ago. This erosion is explained by increasing secularization, an aging population, and a decline in religious practice, particularly in France, Germany, and Spain.

Catholic News Agency notes exceptions, such as Poland, where the Catholic Faith remains deeply rooted, although signs of decline are also perceptible there.

In North America, the situation is hardly any better. With approximately 90 million Catholics (in the United States and Canada), the region is experiencing numerical stability but is showing a loss of cultural influence. Immigration, particularly from Latin America, supports the statistics, but the disaffection of younger generations is contributing to the erosion of religious practice.

Latin America, which is still home to 41% of the world's Catholics (574 million), remains a key region, but also a bastion in transition: growth in Catholicism is almost zero (+0.2%), a notable slowdown compared to previous decades. Vatican News points out that countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, long considered Catholic strongholds, are seeing their faithful populations stagnate in the face of the rise of evangelical and Pentecostal sects.

Urbanization, social inequality, and a certain distrust of religious institutions contribute to this phenomenon. Despite this, the Church retains an important role in education and social welfare, which maintains its influence.

The number of priests worldwide remains stable at around 410,000, but their geographical distribution is changing. Africa and Asia are seeing an increase in ordinations, with 34,000 and 15,000 additional priests respectively over the past few decades. In contrast, Europe is seeing their numbers decline, falling below 150,000. This disparity reflects a shift in Catholicism's center of gravity toward what is known as the Global South.

The number of seminarians—the main indicator of the Church's future—is following a similar trend. Their total number (around 110,000) is down slightly, but Africa more than compensates for the losses in Europe and North America. Catholic News Agency points out that this African vitality is a hope that must be tempered, as it poses logistical challenges, such as the training and support of these future priests.

Church infrastructure, such as parishes (approximately 225,000 worldwide), remains stable, but their activity varies by region. In Africa, new parishes are emerging to meet population growth, while in Europe, some are closing or merging due to a lack of faithful and priests.

The 1.4 billion Catholic population mark, reached in 2023, presents as many opportunities as challenges for the Church. Among the major challenges: secularization in Western countries and religious competition from Protestant sects in the Global South. These are all issues that should be at the heart of the next pontificate, which is occupying everyone's minds, both at the Vatican and elsewhere.