The Rise of Cardinal Parolin

The Secretary of State of the Holy See has increasingly appeared to the entire world—and especially to the Sacred College of Electors of the future pope—as the man in charge of the Vatican.

For news of Pope Francis's health casts doubt on his ability to fully resume his duties: "The Pope is at St. Martha’s House. As far as I know, he is not granting audiences at the moment. I think the important thing is to give him time to recover," declared Cardinal Parolin on the sidelines of a visit to Sacrofano near Rome on March 27, 2025. Is this a way for the Vatican's number two to legitimize his gradual takeover of the Roman apparatus? Do we have a Pope who presides and a Secretary of State who governs? 

The latter explains: "It seems to me that the Pope is well connected to the entire Church and to all the faithful. All the ongoing displays of affection and, above all, prayers have proven this." It is a connection that suggests that the reality of power is gradually shifting from the Casa Santa Marta to the Terza Loggia, the famous third floor of the Apostolic Palace where the Secretariat of State operates.

Moreover, Cardinal Parolin adds: "I continually receive messages from people who say, 'We are praying for the Pope, we are praying for his complete recovery, for his recovery, so that he can return to his duties, to govern the Church.' Perhaps not as before; we will have to find different ways, but that he may always be able to do so.”

This observation is not insignificant. Cardinal Parolin, a skilled diplomat and seasoned strategist, appears to be preparing the ground for a smooth transition toward the end of this pontificate, a period during which the Pope would retain his symbolic and spiritual authority while operational responsibilities would be delegated.

As the Vatican's second-in-command, the porporato is ideally placed to orchestrate this rebalancing. His experience of more than 30 years in the Holy See's diplomatic service gives him undisputed credibility and authority within the Roman Curia. He may even secure a place in the pole position during the next conclave.

But despite a favorable alignment within the power structure of the Vatican, the Secretary of State must still deal with a Roman Curia sometimes divided between reformists and conservatives, and must contend with an "archipelago-like" college of cardinals, given that the future pope's electors have never been so numerous, have never come from such diverse backgrounds, and know very little of each other.

But also—and above all—he will have to reckon with the unpredictable personality of Pope Francis, who is still very much the head of the Church.