The Vatican and Ukraine

Will the Holy See's diplomatic choices in Ukraine bear fruit? Probably, according to the Russian authorities' statement of January 23, 2025. "With the personal and active participation of Cardinal Zuppi, the Pope's special envoy to Ukraine, 16 wounded soldiers from our country's armed forces returned to Russia as part of prisoner of war exchanges," said Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

For several months, the Vatican has changed its attitude regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Rather than trying to reconcile irreconcilable points of view, it is better to play the humanitarian card in order to reconnect the tenuous threads of a dialogue and prepare the belligerents to sit down at the same table at some point in the near future.

Thus, since May 2023, which marks the beginning of Cardinal Matteo Zuppi's mission, 400 prisoners of war and several hundred displaced minors have been exchanged between Ukraine and Russia: "We intend to continue constructive cooperation with the Vatican on humanitarian issues," Maria Zakharova said.

The spokesperson added that, unlike a West, the "balanced position of the Vatican and Pope Francis, who are trying to make their contribution [toward peace], stand out favorably." 

One thing is certain: with this unexpected statement, the Russian side is visibly putting the Vatican back at the heart of the diplomatic game at a time when the conflict in Ukraine is entering a new phase with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. On January 24, Vladimir Putin stated that he was ready for negotiations on Ukraine with his American counterpart, albeit without giving a concrete date.

“I will not dwell on this, but I can only say that the current president has stated that he is ready to work together. … We have always said it, and I want to emphasize it again, we are ready for these negotiations on Ukrainian issues,” declared the President of the Russian Federation.

And he added, regarding his American counterpart: "I can only agree with [Donald Trump] to say that if he had been president, if they had not stolen the victory from him in 2020, there would perhaps not have been the crisis in Ukraine that occurred in 2022."

Some see this as the Russian President trying to gain time in order to advance as much as possible in the theater of military operations so he can arrive at the negotiating table in a position of strength. But Donald Trump is keen to negotiate quickly, threatening Moscow with new sanctions. "If we do not reach an agreement quickly, I will have no choice but to impose high levels of taxes... on everything sold by Russia to the United States. Let's end this war that would never have started if I had been president. ... No more lives must be lost," he declared.

On the American side, they opt for negotiations, based on a mixture of pressure and incentives in order to bring Russia and Ukraine to an agreement. Le Figaro suggests that future talks could be hosted by Switzerland or Slovakia, and would begin with a ceasefire freezing the positions of the two armies, while accepting the possibility of an exchange of territories.

On the Russian side, they advocate a "long-term peace" that includes the recognition of the regions conquered from Ukraine since 2014, and of the Donbass. Because on the ground, the military advantage is clearly with Russia, which needs time to win this war of attrition. At this stage, the Vatican's rule remains crucial.